Yes, you heard it here first. This is my first major prediction of 2012, a complete list will be revealed soon.
This prediction is about one of the most famous companies of the last Decade, Apple.
I am predicting what I am calling “Apple decline time” to start after the peak of 2012 and to continue until it is obvious to independent observers. I’m not saying they are going to completely fall off like RIM/Blackberry or AOL/Time but they will definitely take substantial steps back.
This decline will start in 2012 after all of the record earnings are posted. Enjoy the parties while they last they will not be that easy to come by in the future.
Why will Apple decline?
1. Karma. American Apple employees are treated like kings compared to the literal suicidal conditions at the FoxxConn manufacturing plant. Apple could and can stop this amazing tragedy. How many people have to kill themselves protesting working conditions before Apple will step in and make sure the people who make their products are treated with dignity and respect. The late so called “great” Steve Jobs defended Foxconn saying the suicide rate was lower than the US?
2. Google. The Android platform and network is stronger than the iphone and its iworld of second rateness. Android went from the back of the pack in terms of apps to #1 in no time. Developers have no loyalty to Apple and the Android is a superior physical device add AMAZON and people don’t need itunes. Also, there are more and more entertainment content providers like blockbuster, netflix, etc who are ready to deliver high quality content to your phone.
3. They have had an amazing run. The stock is up 400% in the last 5 years. Do you believe Apple will continue this run against superior competition? When the run started there were no other phones that could do half the stuff Apple’s iphone could do. Now there are how many phones better than the iphone out there? Google actually has another advantage here because they use competition in their manufacturing to create a better product. Who has the best Android platform phone? Samsung, HTC, Motorola, or someone else?
4. Steve Jobs is gone. There is no reason to think the team that won back to back championships will keep winning without its coach. Steve jobs was able to create what I call Electronic Jewelry. That is the phenomenon where people used to be willing to pay more for Apple’s exclusive products even though they were not necessarily better. This started when he rejoined Apple in the 90′s prior to him rejoining the company Macintosh wasn’t doing anything big. Now that he is gone they will slowly go back to where they were. They need him now more than ever.
What do you think? Thanks for commenting.
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